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What next for UK property market

16 Jul 2020

Property values in June were 0.1% lower than in May, Halifax said. The last time house prices fell for four months straight was in 2010 during the financial crisis.

The decline in June followed month-on-month price falls of 0.2% in May, 0.6% in April and 0.3% in March. Though only a small decrease, it is notable as the first time since 2010 – when the housing market was struggling to gain traction following the shock of the global financial crisis – that prices have fallen for four months in a row. Activity levels bounced back strongly in June, which is typically the busiest month for mortgage activity in the UK. New mortgage inquiries were up by 100% compared to May, and with prospective buyers also revisiting purchases previously put on hold, transaction volumes rose sharply compared to previous months.

However, whilst encouraging, it remains too early to say if this level of activity will be sustained. Of course, come the autumn, the macroeconomic landscape in the UK should be clearer and the scale of the impact of the pandemic on the labour market more apparent. Commentators do expect greater downward pressure on prices in the medium term, the extent of which will depend on the success of Government support measures and the speed at which the economy can recover.

In short, the UK housing market is on a knife edge. Pent up demand, particularly at the mid and top end of the market, and a favourable borrowing policy is going head to head with dire economic data. All eyes will now be on the Chancellor’s stamp duty threshold announcement this week in what could be one of the most significant policy interventions for years, as it would help boost activity and unlock sales.